From Law to Practice: Quantitative Evidence on Educators’ Preparedness for School Emergencies and Implementation Scenarios for the Lucas Law: Secondary Analysis of Aggregated Public Data and Training Scenario Modeling

Abstract

Objective: To examine learning, retention, and willingness indicators for school emergencies using public aggregate data to inform Brazil’s Lucas Law. Methods: Quantitative documentary research combined secondary analysis and deterministic modeling. Seven international studies published between 2014 and 2026 were purposively selected; four supplied the core analytical data. Calculations included percentage-of-maximum scores, preservation of initial knowledge gains, intersection bounds, and nine training-capacity scenarios. National planning used the rounded figure of 178,800 schools from the 2025 School Census release. Results: One longitudinal study reported an initial gain of 11.2 points on a 37-point scale. Aggregate means preserved 67.0%, 64.3%, and 50.0% of that gain at six, nine, and 48 months. A study published in 2026 reported knowledge, attitude, and self-reported practice means of 72.6%, 95.7%, and 77.6% of their scale maxima. Adequate knowledge and favorable attitude marginals from another study implied an intersection between 5.9% and 41.1%. Planning scenarios ranged from approximately 0.358 to 4.291 million annual training participations. Conclusion: The analysis supports multidimensional evaluation and transparent capacity planning, without estimating Brazilian educators’ competence or legal compliance. The methodological contribution is to quantify identification uncertainty and propose interoperable aggregate reporting.